The Paradox of Genius: Why Long-Term Thinking Wins
Read time: 4 min
Let's talk about the paradox of genius: why long-term thinking is the secret weapon for startups.
And why we desperately need this weapon to solve the climate crisis.
Are You Being A Good Ancestor For Future Generations?
Founders, we get it. The “here and now” mindset is crucial for launching your startup.
But the GREAT founders?
They think about what will last 10 or even 50 years from now.
Kevin Kelly, co-founder of Wired, has always lived in the future.
His books predicted our digital revolution long before it happened.
He explained why being the best isn’t enough—you have to be the ONLY.
Early-stage startups generally struggle with long-term thinking due to survival pressures.
And high achievers often have nonlinear paths.
But good news. Meandering can lead to world-class uniqueness.
You have to find your long-term niche.
That will make you irreplaceable.
What Can You Do Now, That Will Pay Off In 20 Years Or More?
I always invite visionary founders to think beyond immediate gains.
To focus on civilizational impact and infrastructural necessities.
Ideally, our governments and institutions would fund long-range research without expecting quick returns.
Bad luck, our current leaders are too distracted with short-term challenges.
So startup founders have an even greater responsibility to leave a legacy and invest in the long shots.
A Startup’s Chief Advantage Today
Remember, startups win because they’re scrappy and resourceful.
Big companies solve problems with money; startups solve them with genius.
The lack of resources is your biggest asset. Innovation thrives on constraints.
Embrace being a desperado.
What We Are Seeing In Climate Hardware
Silicon Valley founders saw the digital revolution coming when everyone else dismissed it.
At the moment being a Climate Tech Hardware investor feels the same way.
We’re seeing what others can’t.
The ground is fertile for change and the megatrends are already in motion.
And it’s happening globally.
My message to Founders: don’t be scared to jump into blue ocean fields.
No revenues for ten years?
Great! That means no competition. That’s the power of being ahead of the curve.
No clear path to exit in the next five?
Amazing! The path will reveal itself. It always has and it rewarded the risk-takers pretty handsomely.
Conclusion
Technology is part of a larger system, the "Technium".
Let’s leverage the Technium to solve our world’s most pressing issues.
Its long arc and network effects will do the rest.
The real genius?
Adopt long-term thinking.
Be the only, not just the best.
And embrace your scrappy nature ✨
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Stay scrappy my friends,