The truth about spray and pray investing (10 years later)

Lessons from climate moonshots

Read time: 5 min

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When I first started angel investing, I thought the job was to pick winners.

Find the next Tesla. Back the founder with the perfect deck.

But here’s the truth: at the earliest stage, you have no idea.

That’s why the only rational strategy is spray and pray.

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It’s not chess, it’s checkers

Everyone loves to compare VC to chess. The grandmasters. The strategy. The foresight.

But in reality, early-stage investing looks a lot more like checkers.

In chess, the Queen has more power than the pawns. In startups, you have no idea which piece will matter.

That weird idea you almost laughed at? Could be your fund returner.
That polished, obvious darling? Could die a slow, quiet death.

At the start, every bet is equal. Only time reveals the outliers.

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What actually happens to an angel portfolio

Let’s assume you put together a $50k angel portfolio. 20 startups. $2,500 per ticket.

Again, better to consider all bets equal. You’re investing the same amount every single time.

Here’s how it plays out:

Year 1–2: the honeymoon.
You write checks. You’re buzzing with energy. Founders are excited. You feel like you’re building the future.

Year 3–5: the deaths begin.
30–50% of your portfolio is gone. Emails stop. Startups fold. The graveyard fills up. The rest manages to graduate to the next round of funding.

Year 6–7: more of the same.
Even if you kept investing, you’ll see the same death rate. A handful survive, but most look like “walking dead”, not thriving, not dying.

Year 8: signs of life.
Outliers start to separate. Maybe one looks really strong. Maybe one looks decent. They’ve made it to Series C and are raising growth rounds.

Year 10: liquidity.
One of your companies gets acquired. You get your first meaningful return.

Year 11: the jackpot.
One of your outliers IPOs. This is the “fund returner.” The deal that makes everything worth it.

Meanwhile, the rest of your portfolio? Dead. Forgotten. Irrelevant.

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The power law is merciless

Here’s the math:

• 2 deals return your portfolio.

• 1 deal drives more than 50% of your gains.

• The other 8 don’t matter. At all.

That’s why chasing every “darling” is a waste of energy. Most will die. The odds are stacked against them.

But if you hit that one outlier, the game flips.

Over 10 years, if you spray and pray broadly enough, you can 3–4x your money.

That’s a 20–30% IRR, far better than stocks or real estate.

The catch? Most investors will never hit that fund returner.

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Final thought

Early stage investing is not about perfect foresight.

It’s about patience. Broad exposure. And the discipline to recognize when an outlier is emerging.

Play the game long enough, and with enough pieces on the board, you give yourself a shot at the fund returner.

And when it happens, it changes everything.

— Yoann

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