Time: 4min
I have been a fan of Ed Conway for years.
He takes the most opaque parts of the global energy system and makes them visible.
Which is why I want to push back on his latest one.
This week, Conway dropped a 15-minute investigation from the Permian Basin. The Strait of Hormuz on edge. Tankers redirecting to the US. Can American shale step up?
Sharply reported. Sobering conclusion.
Wrong story.
Shale is the past
The shale revolution was real. Conway calls it “the most underrated economic story of the past 50 years.” He is right.
Here is the part his video hints at without saying.
Shale peaked.
Diamondback Energy told shareholders in 2025 that US onshore oil production has likely peaked and is now declining. Permian well productivity has dropped more than 15% since 2021.
Even in Conway’s footage, the story above ground is the same. Pipelines bottlenecked. Producers refusing to ramp up despite high prices.
The Permian is not waking up. It is flexing one last time.
Look at what we are clinging to
2min. Watch it.
A century of capital, locked into one form of energy.
Now look at the other side of the world.
China is building an electron empire
In 2025, China added more than 430 GW of new wind and solar.
8 times the US. In one year.
Battery storage tripled in three years. Clean energy investment in 2024: $625 billion, 31% of the global total.
In May 2025 alone: 100 solar panels per second. One wind turbine every 10 minutes.
The largest peacetime infrastructure build-out in human history.
Molecules vs electrons
Conway’s revolution runs on molecules.
The next one runs on electrons.
You cannot embargo electrons. You cannot blockade a solar panel. Once a country builds the manufacturing base and the grid, power becomes domestic. Permanent. Compounding.
China understood this 15 years ago. The West is still arguing about it.
And the $725 billion hyperscalers are spending on AI infrastructure this year? That is not buying tankers. It is buying gigawatts.
AI runs on electrons. The country that delivers them cheap and clean wins.
The mistake history will remember
The West had every advantage. Capital. Technology. Talent. The early lead in solar, wind, batteries.
We let it go.
We mistook energy independence in oil for energy security for the future.
They are not the same thing.
China bet on electrons. The West bet on molecules.
One of those bets is going to age very badly.
Why this matters for founders
If you build in clean power, grid, batteries, transmission, or anything that turns electrons into productive output, this is your moment.
Not because of policy. Because of physics, geopolitics, and the largest capital reallocation of our lifetime, all pointing the same way.
If you are raising in May or June, this is your window. The Club is shrinking. LPs are scarce. VCs are pickier.
This week I published a step-by-step walkthrough of how I ran a $2M raise through Claude Fundraiser. Deck score, investor matching, cold emails, the lot. That one is gold.
Tuesday I’ll drop another gem tool.
Final thought
Ed Conway is a treasure. I will keep watching every video he puts out.
But on this one, the camera is pointed in the wrong direction.
The Permian is the closing chapter of the molecule era.
China is writing the first chapter of the electron one.
See you Tuesday.
—Yoann
Quick note: I run a small number of brand collaborations each quarter with companies, tools, and VCs aligned with the climate audience here. Past campaigns and results here. Always happy to chat.